EVs’ share of global sales was relatively flat in 2020 at around 3%, but they continue rising and will hit 7% in 2023 with sales of around 5.4 million.BNEF
About 30% of new two-wheelers sold in the world are electric, but new cars will do this feat only by 2030. For India, it will take another decade to reach 30% electrification. Globally by 2040 electric cars will outsell the internal combustion engine ones with a market share of about 60%, electric two-wheelers with 77%, and the overall electric fleet with 47%, reveals a BloombergNEF (BNEF) report.
According to the ‘Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020’ report by BNEF, the share of e-bus remains unchanged from last year, and the share of e-buses in the global bus fleet will be about 67% by 2040. Electric buses will not fully take over the market. Diesel and eventually hydrogen fuel cell buses will round out the rest of the fleet.
The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BloombergNEF’s annual long-term forecast of how electrification, shared mobility and autonomous driving will impact road transport from now out to 2040.
EVs’ share of global sales was relatively flat in 2020 at around 3%, but they continue rising and will hit 7% in 2023 with sales of around 5.4 million. Some automakers delay EV launches in North America, but the timelines in Europe and China remain largely unchanged. Delay in launches by leading manufacturers is seen in India also.
By 2025, EVs hit 10% of global passenger vehicle sales, rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040 the report pointed out. Price parity between EVs and internal combustion vehicles is reached by the mid-2020s in most segments, but there is a wide variation between geographies. For instance, small vehicles in India and Japan do not hit parity until after 2030 due to very low average purchase prices in these segments, the report mentioned.
Industry experts believe that price factor coupled with infrastructure limitation will not be able to give desired demand boost to EVs in India and the country will see about 8% new EV car sales by 2030.
Cumulative investments, as per the report, in all types of charging hardware and installations, will reach USD500 billion globally by 2040. China will account for 50% of global cumulative investment in 2025 but by 2040 it will expand almost evenly between China, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world.
Investment
Global investment in electric transport surged 28% in 2020 year on year to USD139 billion. The world invested more than USD500 billion in 2020 in energy transition sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles and charging, and electric heat, according to the figures from BNEF.
The biggest deals included USD2.8 billion raised by Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), USD846 million by the US fuel cell company Plug Power, and USD777 million by the Chinese PV manufacturer JA Solar Technology
Within the automotive segments, passenger EVs have emerged as the main driver of transport electrification outlays, as per the report.
Indian Scenario
India’s journey to electrification got a new lease of life in December 2020, when the world’s leading electric car manufacturer Tesla confirmed its entry. Soon after this announcement OLA Electric Mobility Pvt Ltd, the subsidiary of the Indian ride-hailing startup Ola, also announced USD330 million investment plan on the world’s largest electric scooter plant in Hosur, Tamil Nadu, with a capacity to produce 2 million units a year. With this facility, the company aims to capture 15% of the global e-scooter market by 2022.
Another promising player in this space is Hero MotoCorp-backed Ather Energy. In February 2021, Ather shifted its USD86.5 million factory from Bengaluru (Karnataka) to Hosur (Tamil Nadu) and turned it into a smart manufacturing plant with a production capacity of 1,10,000 e-scooters and also 1,20,000 battery packs per annum.
Despite such major moves, India’s share of investment in e-mobility is extremely low due to scalability and infrastructure constraints, ad it is largely confined to the two-wheeler segment.
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